In a study, published in The Lancet, researchers examined how population mixing has affected outbreak progression of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, finding that if restrictions on activities were maintained until April, the epidemic peak would probably be delayed.1
These projections suggest that premature and sudden lifting of interventions put in place could lead to an earlier secondary peak, which could be flattened by relaxing the interventions gradually.
“Non-pharmaceutical interventions based on sustained physical distancing have a strong potential to reduce the magnitude of the epidemic peak of COVID-19 and lead to a small number of overall cases,” the authors wrote. “Lowering and flattening of the epidemic peak is particularly important, as this reduces the acute pressure on the health-care system.”
Researchers used synthetic location-specific…